A study has found that it is possible to predict the lifespan of an athlete by identifying the peak period and the amount of decline in physical activity. Athletes who reached their prime earlier and then rapidly declined in performance had a shorter average life expectancy먹튀검증.
Saul Newman, a researcher at Oxford University’s Center for Demography, published the results of a study that analyzed the life cycles of more than 10,000 athletes over the past 150 years in the international journal ‘Science Advances’ on the 20th . The subject of analysis is more than 10,000 men who were active as professional baseball and basketball players between 1871 and 2020.
It is known that aging begins around the age of 30 and the mortality rate accelerates. However, it is still unclear how physiological phenomena, such as reduced strength and cardiovascular health, affect longevity. This means that understanding the causal relationship between a person’s long-term physiological data and death is limited.
The research team looked at the lives of athletes to determine how physiological phenomena early in life affect later in life. First of all, the players’ ‘peak athletic ability age’ and ‘athletic performance decline rate’ were calculated, and survival patterns were predicted using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Models . The Cox Proportional Hazards Model is a statistical method that analyzes survival by predictive regression analysis between time and events.
As a result of the analysis, most of the players had a similar body mass index and height to their debut time, but the death rate rose faster for players who reached their peak earlier. The researchers found that the death rate doubled for every 7.6 years for athletes whose peak athletic age was faster than the median, and every 8.4 years for slower athletes. Athletes with a slower peak had a 1.2-year longer life expectancy after age 40. The average life expectancy of all players is 79 years.
In the rate of decline in athletic performance, the lifespan of the players whose performance declined slowly was longer. Athletes who performed consistently had a 0.8 year higher life expectancy than those whose athletic performance declined rapidly after age 40. Among the players who reached their peak early, those who maintained their performance aged twice as often every 8.2 years, and those whose performance rapidly retreated every 7.5 years. The life expectancy of players who have reached their peak early is 74 years.
The research team analyzed that early life still has an impact 50 years later, at the average retirement age of 29.3. The research team said, “In conclusion, the average life span of athletes who peaked early and rapidly declined was short. did.
“The age at the peak of athletic performance and the rate at which that performance declines are both strong predictors of an athlete’s later survival,” he said. .
The research team explained that although not all data on athletes were provided, there may be limitations to the analysis, but it will provide clues to the aging process. In particular, it is predicted that future wearable device health tracking devices will be able to study the effect of early life data on aging.
“The predictive values of the variables in this study are all promising methods for predicting human health,” said the research team. ”he explained.